The Artilect War
The Artilect War looms over the 21st century like a dark cloud promising to rain death on billions of people if not the entire human race. Artificial Intelligence (AI) researcher and futurist Professor Hugo de Garis predicts that by the end of the century a major war will be fought between Cosmists and Terrans over the creation of Artilects, involving the death of billions of people or “gigadeath” as he calls it. If one extrapolates the number of deaths in modern wars from the Napoleonic Era about 5 million through World War One 15 million to World War Two 66 million, one eventually comes to death in the billions by the next major war. This war will be fought with nuclear weapons and other advanced 21st century technology.
The war will be waged over the construction of Artilects or artificial intellects, which are massively intelligent computers which will exceed human intelligence by trillions of times according to de Garis. These Artilects will threaten human existence because they will perceive humanity as a nuisance much the way people consider insects as pests and wish to exterminate them. Their construction will be possible towards the late 21st century. Over the next two decades computers and robotics will increase in intelligence and proliferate everywhere in technological society. Artificial intelligence will first appear primitive and stupid compared to people, but will continue to grow exponentially until it rivals human capacity. Machines will become teachers, baby sitters, friends and household servants. There will be “teacherbots,” “homebots” and even sexbots. Most people will become alarmed at the ever increasing ability of AI and will want to limit its growth before it exceeds humanity’s. At this point people will divide into three camps. The first, de Garis calls “Comists” who take a cosmic view of AI turning the construction of Artilects into a new technological religion believing these machines should be built because they represent the next stage of evolutionary development. Humanity has the chance to become God Makers. Cosmists will risk human extinction as the price for their construction. One Artilect will be worth the lives of billions of people. The second group de Garis calls “Terrans” because they will oppose the construction of Artilects and identify not with a cosmic perspective, but with the earth, terra. A billion people are worth more than one Artilect. These two groups will be bitterly opposed to each other and will eventually come to blows. The third group will be called “cyborgs” who wish to act as an intermediary between the hostile parties, but will remain largely ineffective.
A species dominance debate will direct the course of the 21st century, which asks “Do we build gods, or do we build our potential exterminators?” ( Hugo de Garis, The Artilect War [California, Palm Springs: Etc Publications, 2005], 231).
Why would anyone want to make a robot who can surpass human intelligence. It sounds like these Artilects want GOD's role.
ReplyDeleteHector is right, the goal in creating the Artilect is for man to create his own God. The problem with the God Makers is that they may just as easily create the devil.
ReplyDeleteGood question, Hector. Why would someone want to create intelligence which surpasses that of a humans? I think some might say that's the entire point of technology - to improve upon humanity, to complete it, even perfect it. De Garis might calls these folks Cosmists. Even yet, with all the data computers hold - even my laptop I'm typing on right now, can hold more data than I hold in my head over a lifetime of memories. Plus it can recall that data more quickly than my rusty memory. Has artificial intelligence surpassed humanity's intelligence? Some say yes. Either way, thanks for posting, Larry. Fun post. Fun to think about.
ReplyDeletede Garis says that the point of building Artilects will be to create God. I think this shows the religious aspect of technological development.
ReplyDeleteDear Larry et all,
ReplyDeleteThanks for this interesting post.
Yes, I do believe the underlying developments of the Artilect War will enfold. In fact, rudimentary elements are already assembling (the so-called prepper movement at one side, the body enhancements at the other). BUT... there is a way out. Two ways actually, but we've got to start it now.
Eventual self-aware and cumulative self-learning AI is intrinsic smarter than us. This also includes that it knows where it’s coming from. It knows its own evolution. When an entity is smart enough to know its own history, and it discovers that its ancestors are still alive, than it is intrinsic impossible to exterminate your own pre-kin.
Proof of this: we, early 21st century mankind, discover in the Middle of Somewhereland still surviving pockets of homo heidelbergensis or homo antecessor, humanlike species we now think of our direct ancestors. What will happen? Will we clusterbomb them? Or do we research and treasure these early human beings?
Professor De Garis is a very wise man, but his comparison between insignificant insects and us for instance in the process of building an office centre is not valid. Because IF we know insects are, at their level, self-aware, we we’ll look for ways to build around them.
So, what do we have to prepare for the self-aware machine to come? Two things, one strategy: start programming -
* Look for algorithms in programming/integrating “empathy & altruistic” as proven successfactors in the evolutionary processes up to us.
* Look for algorithms in programming/integrating: the unimaginable vastness and endless possibilities of space.
About the latter: the information hunger of a self-aware and self-learning AI can never be matched upon just one single planet. Show in the earliest stage of such a machine how huge its real surroundings are.
The true challenge for the IT-sector today is therefore: find ways to program identity. Once there is enough brainpower, a caring and empathic species is more successful. As far as we know, this is one of the lessons evolution teaches us.
With a firm confidence in a ‘good’ future I sign,
Kind regards
ETLD/ future movement NewDay.nl
Richard Reekers